Blog Archives

Three More Days

Three more days to November 4th, to what is one of the historic elections in the history of the US. If polls turn out to be true, and there is no Bradley effect, this country could see the first non-white President in its chequered, almost two hundred fifty year old history. Not just Americans, but I suspect, a large part of the world awaits with some interest the outcome of these elections. Many people point out to me, independent of the outcome, the glory days of the US as a superpower are over.

The country seems to be in the grip of an election anxiety. The Montreal Gazette says: “..they [Americans] lie in bed till 4 a.m. in panic, mentally calculating the latest hourly polls, divided by the projected ethnic voter turn-out.” AP reports: “Voters around the country, whether they support McCain or Barack Obama, say they are experiencing nail-biting, ulcer-inducing anxiety ahead of next week’s election and all that’s riding on it”. Huffinton Post has letters from various readers around the country on their feelings of election anxiety.

I check the polls every morning, my pulse racing a little if I see the race tightening, ignoring the statistical fine print. I read articles that ask whether the polls are accurate predictors of the outcome. I learn about the 1948 mishap when polls stopped polling a week earlier because the Republican Thomas Dewey was well ahead of Democrat Harry Truman and missed the late surge by Truman to win the election. I read that in 1980, Ronald Reagan similarly came from behind to defeat Jimmy Carter largely on the strength of his performance in the last debate. And then there is the more recent misfire in New Hampshire when Hilary Clinton trumped Obama in the primaries despite Obama being ahead in the polls. The variation between the results between different pollsters adds to the anxiety. Ramussen reports the difference to be as small as three percent around the same time that Pew Research Center reports that difference to be 15%. The only thing that all polls agree is that the larger number is currently pegged on Obama’s name.

I found Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight.com (538 being the number of electors in the elector college) to be good aggregators of all the different polls and providing some perspective and independent commentary on the numbers. For example, today’s article in pollster.com said: “Not surprisingly, yesterday was another heavy day of new poll releases: 37 new statewide surveys and 10 national releases, yet these surveys indicate no clear trends and leave our bottom line electoral vote count unchanged.” FiveThirtyEight lists the chances of Obama winning at 96.22 percent and the chances of McCain winning at 3.78%; there is a 0.15% chance of a tie.

Some folks (including me) are wary of the Bradley effect, named after the African-American contender for the governor of California who polls showed to be winning in a landslide, but who lost, because people lied to the pollsters to avoid being called racist i.e. they said that they’d vote for Bradley but voted for his opponent because Bradley was black. I’ve read reports that quote people who say that they’re afraid of a country run by a black. Two skinheads were arrested for plotting to assassinate Obama. But many are fairly confident that the Bradley effect is not a factor this time.

Some others speak of the bandwagon effect, the cognitive bias that makes people do things because that’s what they think a large majority of people would do, in this case switch votes because the odds favor a candidate overwhelmingly over the other. 7 in 10 Americans polled by Gallup thought that Obama would win. So, the proponents of the bandwagon effect claim, Obama may win by an even bigger margin because of the bandwagon effect.

While most non-US powers and people believe that it is sunset time for might of the US, a Gallup poll found that people the world over prefer Obama to McCain by a 3-1 ratio. People in 73 countries were polled with the questions of whether who won the US elections would affect their country and who they would like to see win. Indians largely claimed that they didn’t know if the elections would affect them. Even in Pakistan, only 10% claimed that it mattered who won the elections (and Obama and McCain were evenly split as their favorite) while 72% claimed that they didn’t know or refused to answer.

Some of my friends and family, who were new to this country and are seeing the spectacle that is the US elections for the first time, are appalled. They had hoped to find the elections much more erudite, the speeches more about issues and the people more knowledgable. “This doesn’t seem very different from India”, one of them commented to me, “Religion seems to play a huge role in who people vote for”.

A colleague at the Internet standards body that I go to said to me over a difference of opinion that we had: “Oh, I don’t want conceding the point to you in return for the election going right. If it doesn’t go right, I maybe forced to move to Canada”. A neighbor echoed the same sentiment today and we discussed the benefits and disadvantages of Toronto vs Vancouver. Another colleague asked me why I was so upset with the Palin nomination (he’s so radically left and un-nunaced that everybody looks right to him and so he doesn’t care if Obama or McCain wins, it’s all the same, he says) and I told him that I’d seriously consider moving back to India if McCain won because that’d be a step in the worst possible direction for this country.

Psychologists like Daniel Gilbert, the author of last year’s immensely popular Stumbling on Happiness, has written extensively about how bad we’re at predicting our behavior after certain outcomes. In 2004, a year when a lot of us held our breath hoping Kerry wouldn’t be swift-boated to defeat, many people spoke openly of moving to Canada if Bush won. Gilbert wrote after the elections, in January 2005: “By now, most of the people I know should be Canadians. At least that’s what they said they’d be if President Bush won re-election. And yet, my unofficial tally suggests that the number of disgruntled Democrats who actually emigrated northward is roughly zero, plus or minus none. November saw more than its share of cursing, wailing and gnashing of teeth in some quarters, but by the middle of December the weeping had largely subsided and most of the people I know were busy buying gifts. With the exception of the junior senator from Massachusetts and a few hundred others whose lives and livelihoods hinged on the election’s outcome, most Democrats had a good cry, kicked something until it broke, then slipped quietly back into their daily routines of family, work and television.”

Palin and McCain meanwhile continued their ignoramus, unscientific posturing. In the latest gaffe, Sarah Palin mocked the research on fruit flies. She is reported to have said: “Sometimes these dollars, they go to projects having little or nothing to do with the public good. Things like fruit fly research in Paris, France. I kid you not.” Attacking science, demonstrating xenophobia and being folksy, all in one. The blogs took up the war with the lefties howling in the aisles over Palin’s comments while the right attempted to show that the left didn’t know that Palin meant the agricultural pests and not its famous cousin, the fruit fly used as the the basic research tool in genetics. The Science magazine carried what I thought was the more neutral report. It concludes the remarks by an entomologist who understood what the research was about and why it mattered to people. He said: “This kind of stuff always drives me nuts. It’s a total lack of understanding of the importance of research.” Do Palin and her supporters really think that the US got to be where it was without the investment in science and research ? And do they really forget that one of the proudest moments in their history, the first man to land on the moon, was largely a government project ? They point to certain bureaucracies as reflective of the inefficiencies of a government while forgetting that there are a lot of inefficient companies propped up artificially by these very same people. They ridicule Obama of being a socialist while voting for the nationalization of investment banks. They deride the role of the government while supporting a ban on abortion and declaring homosexuality illegal. They take pride that their country came up with innovations like the Internet while deriding basic research. They applaud free markets while continuing to support farm subsidies. Attitudes that scare me. I worry about the future of this country, no the future of Maya in a country that elects such people to power.

I cast my vote for Obama already, glad for having cast my very first vote in my entire life, in such a historic election.

Post-Debate Musings

So, after my mid-life crisis around the issue of presidential debates, I pulled myself together and watched all the debates, including the VP one (honestly, I watched that one more for entertainment). The final debate concluded today with many undecided voters still thinking Obama won by a wide margin.

But for any serious person interested in real solutions, the debates proved largely to be empty, save for one issue. I thought that on the issue of abortion, Obama made a lucid argument including one of reaching for common ground between the two camps. He put the issue where it lies, on the choice of a woman. McCain seemed to attack Obama than make a lucid argument on why he opposed abortion. I also appreciated Obama for not digging into McCain’s record of supporting abortion before he realized that he needed to court the Christian Right. If anything, McCain’s negativity was in sharp relief today. And ugly it was.

But on issue after issue, the debates have largely been shallow, even on issues that seem hardly worth debating. For example, Obama is now in favor of offshore drilling after rejecting it initially. Analysts largely agree that offshore drilling would barely impact gas prices. Both candidates appear to be more certain than any intelligent man could be under similar circumstances. People know that this is theater, that questions will be asked, well rehearsed answers will be given, answers that never touch the core of the problem. They don’t even begin to question the questions. It sometimes seems that we’re all party to this charade, that no one can stand up and call this emperor naked. I can only hope that Obama will not indulge in some of these plans.

McCain continued his shocking irresponsibility when asked about Sarah Palin. He called her a “role model to women and reformers all over America”. I was initially shocked that the Republican base was so enthralled with her. Even after an official report found her guilty of abusing power, she announced that the report vindicated her. Was there no person in the Republican camp with a sense of shame, I wondered ? Had partisanship reached such heights that we could not even look at someone like Sarah Palin and be afraid of her possible presidency ? Happily, I found that a few are denouncing her candidacy. Christopher Buckley, the son of the famous, erudite conservative, William Buckley, in an article titled “Sorry, Dad, I’m Voting for Obama” writes: “And finally, not to belabor it, there was the Palin nomination. What on earth can he have been thinking?”. He also writes about an op-ed piece by a conservative colleague of his at National Review Online, Kathleen Parker, who said that “Sarah Palin is an embarrassment, and a dangerous one at that”. David Brooks, the conservative columnist for NY Times called her a “fatal cancer to the Republican Party”. Christopher Hitchens, a liberal turned war hawk/conservative and a columnist at the progressive weekly, The Nation, known for his scathing and well-argued pieces, wrote:

The most insulting thing that a politician can do is to compel you to ask yourself: “What does he take me for?” Precisely this question is provoked by the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin. I wrote not long ago that it was not right to condescend to her just because of her provincial roots or her piety, let alone her slight flirtatiousness, but really her conduct since then has been a national disgrace. It turns out that none of her early claims to political courage was founded in fact, and it further turns out that some of the untested rumors about her—her vindictiveness in local quarrels, her bizarre religious and political affiliations—were very well-founded, indeed. Moreover, given the nasty and lowly task of stirring up the whack-job fringe of the party’s right wing and of recycling patent falsehoods about Obama’s position on Afghanistan, she has drawn upon the only talent that she apparently possesses.

I’m glad to see that there is still some semblance of sense amongst the conservative base, that all is not lost.

In many places where communists have come to power, they have chosen to wipe out the educated class in the name of the proletariat. I’m aware of this happening at least in China and in Cambodia. This has also happened under the right wing governments in South America, I believe. The Republican Party, personified in the form of Sarah Palin, has rejected the educated, the erudite in increasingly loud voices. This seems a dangerous trend to me, a rejection of those people who are most capable of making this country as great as the Republicans claim it to be. David Brooks writes about the same trend in a column in NYT. He writes:

What had been a disdain for liberal intellectuals slipped into a disdain for the educated class as a whole. The liberals had coastal condescension, so the conservatives developed their own anti-elitism, with mirror-image categories and mirror-image resentments, but with the same corrosive effect.


The political effects of this trend have been obvious. Republicans have alienated the highly educated regions — Silicon Valley, northern Virginia, the suburbs outside of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Raleigh-Durham. The West Coast and the Northeast are mostly gone.

The Republicans have alienated whole professions. Lawyers now donate to the Democratic Party over the Republican Party at 4-to-1 rates. With doctors, it’s 2-to-1. With tech executives, it’s 5-to-1. With investment bankers, it’s 2-to-1. It took talent for Republicans to lose the banking community.

Conservatives are as rare in elite universities and the mainstream media as they were 30 years ago. The smartest young Americans are now educated in an overwhelmingly liberal environment.

It is the glorification of this attitude, culminating in the ascent of Sarah Palin as a VP nominee, that makes me worried. The coming years are not going to be easy, with global warming, vanishing topsoil, diminishing water supplies and other major resource constraints. When that time comes, xenophobia will increase as will a desire for homogenity. And the very attitudes being cultivated by the Republican Party are a step in that direction.

Why I Won’t Be Voting For McCain

I came across a passage about an American POW who was tortured for five years by the Vietcong. Imprisoned in a small, narrow bamboo cage, he was immersed every day in a rat-infested water upto his waist from dawn till dusk. The man survived a breakdown by building a five-star hotel in his mind, brick by brick, with complete details such as the quality of the sheets, the color of the walls, the cabling and other intricate details that go into the real life construction of such a building. John McCain was a POW and was allegedly tortured and kept in horrific conditions. He carries the physical reminders of the injuries that he sustained during that time, his inability to raise his arms above his head.

When McCain fought George Bush for the presidential nomination in 2000, an anonymous smear campaign (how can they be anonymous, I wonder) caused him much grief. According to the NYT: “A smear campaign during the primary in February 2000 here had many in South Carolina falsely believing that Mr. McCain’s wife, Cindy, was a drug addict and that the couple’s adopted daughter, Bridget, was the product of an illicit union. Mr. McCain’s patriotism, mental well-being and sexuality were also viciously called into question”. Bush won in South Carolina. McCain would say of the rumor spreaders, “I believe that there is a special place in hell for people like those.” According to one report, the South Carolina experience left him in a “very dark place.” When McCain campaigned in South Carolina in 2008, many people reportedly came upto him and his wife and apologized for the behavior in 2000.

I expect a president to learn and to empathize. To remember how bad it felt when he was at the receiving end, and make sure that he uses his power to spare those who followed, what he suffered. To never put another human being in that horrific condition called “war”, especially an unjust and unnecessary war. What did McCain do when Bush and his cohorts decided to attack Iraq ? Said “You’re doing one heckuva job, George” and supported him whole heartedly, differing only in wanting a greater number of US troops sent to Iraq. What is he doing now that the polls indicate that he’s largely trailing Obama ? Turn on negative ads. His VP nominee, Sarah Palin, is quoted in papers as saying: “There is a time when it’s necessary to take the gloves off and that time is right now”. Even before this, he endorsed several negative ads and his campaign has already been attributed as being abysmal in its usage of negative, false advertisements.

The nadir, for me, came when he selected Sarah Palin as his VP nominee, hoping to win the support of Hilary Clinton’s supporters. In the short span since that time, Sarah Palin has demonstrated that not only is she inexperienced and ignorant, but willing to go after personalities when she lacks the ideas to debate issues. She seeks to activate primal fears with fear, uncertainty and doubt instead of cogently discussing issues. For example, in Florida, she is quoted as having said:”I am just so fearful that this is not a man who sees America the way you and I see America”. The subtext of race raised in a Southern state is abhorring. In the much anticipated VP debate, it looked she was running for American Idol, not the vice presidency of the United States. Instead of lambasting her performance and her attitude, the right wing sopped it up, demanding more. Further, she combats her ignorance with a fierce determinism and certainty, driven in large part by her Christian faith. A very dangerous combination given the past eight years, especially in a world where the rules are changing so fast. For a man who professes his love for his country, to put a person like her the next in line is feckless. And it is not a very unlikely scenario, her becoming the president, since McCain is “older than dirt”, as he likes to think of himself.

I came across a quote from Thomas Pynchon’s acclaimed novel, Gravity’s Rainbow: “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don’t have to worry about the answers.” By forcing race into the issue, by forcing personality into the discussion, by questioning his judgement, his name, his religion, his very being, McCain and Palin are trying to force the voters into not thinking about the issues, issues they answer with increasingly unrealistic ideologies.

A colleague at work hangs a sign at his desk: “Great minds discuss ideas, mediocre minds discuss events and small minds discuss people”. I’m fearful that this country will bring to power these incredibly small minds, based largely on race and fear. I will not be voting for such small minds.

The Debate Last Night

When I first came to the US, back in the fall of 1992, we were a few days away from the presidential elections. My friend, a political junkie (and an economic one) with whom I shared the apartment, wanted us to buy a TV immediately so that we could watch the the presidential debates. Unfortunately for him, the debates were already over. Personally, I was glad about it because I didn’t want to cough up the money for a TV when we were earning so little money. But I was intrigued by the idea of a presidential debate, telecast live. In my naivete, I fantasized how wonderful the whole event would be, serious discussions about the things that mattered, by the two people who in a short time would have the power to assert the most influence. I presumed I’d be awestruck by the display of intellectual rigor and the presentation of facts. Yesterday, I watched the first of the presidential debates this year between Obama and McCain on my laptop, intermittently and with not much interest. What happened between 1992 and 2008 that made me feel so jaded about an event that I had been so in awe of ? Was it just middle age (drat, there I admitted it) and fatherhood ?

The presidential debates are an artifact of the modern age of TV, though a few debates did occur in the past, the most famous being the Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858. They were proposed by a student at the University of Maryland which caught the attention of the national press and a few years later, in 1960, the first debate was held between John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon, which many acknowledged Kennedy had won. After a hiatus between 1960 and 1976, the presidential debates resumed in earnest in 1976.

Presidential debates are more theater than substance, as just about anything that befits the TV is bound to be. I remember reading that if TV was around when FDR was running for president, he may have never won, being stuck in a wheelchair in his last term. Drummed up and opined by the media who declare the winner and the loser, gaffes – such as Gerald Ford’s statement in the 1976 debate that “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe” – or witty remarks – such as Reagan’s in the 1984 debate, when he was 73: “I will not make age an issue in this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” – can be a leading cause of defeat or victory at the polls. Looking wan as he was recovering from an injury and two weeks at the hospital and wearing a suit that caused him to blend into the background, Richard Nixon came out looking worse compared to a relaxed and healthy looking Kennedy. Flash over substance, matter over mind.

However, in the intial years, The League of Women Voters which had sponsored the debates from 1976 to 1984, is reported to have done a good job in running the debates in a non-partisan way, preparing questions and setting the agenda in a way that made it difficult to provide canned responses. So, the two parties began to fight for tighter control of the debates to make their candidates come out looking better prepared. In 1988, LWV withdrew its sponsorship, disgusted:

“The League of Women Voters is withdrawing sponsorship of the presidential debates…because the demands of the two campaign organizations would perpetrate a fraud on the American voter. It has become clear to us that the candidates’ organizations aim to add debates to their list of campaign-trail charades devoid of substance, spontaneity and answers to tough questions. The League has no intention of becoming an accessory to the hoodwinking of the American public.”

Since then, the debates have been controlled and run by a commission headed by both the major parties in this country. Third party candidates are not permitted to participate in the debate, though Ross Perot, the only third party candidate to have made some dent in a largely two party country, did participate the first time he ran for presidency. Other third party candidates such as Ralph Nader have been denied a chance to participate despite protests and lawsuits. In 2000, when Nader’s name was on the ballot in most of the 50 states, attempted to enter the debate auditorium as a spectator (granted a ticket by a sympathetic student), he was barred from entering the location by police officers and an official from the presidential debate commission. Prominent media outlets like the New York Times have also been on the side of excluding third party candidates from these debates.

So, in the self-proclaimed world’s greatest democracy, people who have a legitimate voice in the discourse have been barred from participating in it. The debates themselves are so staged, there is little of substance that is said, it being more important to come across as pleasing or commanding or whatever the word that grabs the fancy of the country that year, rather than speak substance. Al Gore who attempted professorial answers to questions was snubbed and said as being too wooden and pontificating. This year, the worry was whether Obama would come across similarly, giving long answers instead of short, pithy responses.

In an age where speed and monetary growth are the two most lauded and sought after values, we don’t have (nay, don’t want) the time to pause, consider a measured response and reflect. Everything has to be reduced to sound bites, so nothing detracts us too long from our pursuit of life, liberty and happiness (or should I call it by what it really is, collection of material artifacts to hide our hunger and emptiness in connecting and feeling connected). Part of the desire for pithier responses also comes because we’re tired of hearing long, obfuscating answers to questions not asked. But, in a world that is growing more complicated with the set of challenges that face humanity, our craving for simple answers, one word fixes, quick fixes, is dangerous. When you want to question the very framework of the questions, you cannot respond in sound bites. The questions assume a particular world-view and to challenge that view requires more than just a few words. Nuclear power seems an easy enough answer to global warming, given that we’ve learned to associate the problem with oil. But why it is not the answer requires more words, words that people don’t have the time for. This is why Noam Chomsky is never interviewed by the mainstream media.

We’re also a people who value certainty more than doubt, knowledge more than learning, the result more than the process, doing more than being. So a candidate who expresses ignorance or doubt is cast aside like a leper. To change one’s mind, to admit being wrong is a sin. Instead of being aghast at the enormous cost of unwilling to change his mind in the face of facts, many admired George Bush’s pigheadedness in staying the course, calling it tenacity. Where is sagacity ?

We’re not as rational as we like to think we are. Studies are emerging with increasing frequency that attest to that line from the Simon & Garfunkel song: “All lies and jest, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest”. For example, a recent article talked about how refuting incorrect information doesn’t change by much the views people formed on hearing the misinformation. For example, 56% of Democrat volunteers disapproved of the detainee treatment at Guantanamo Bay before being shown a Newsweek report that a Koran had been flushed down the toilet. After being told about this, 78% of the volunteers disapproved of the treatment. They were then told that Newsweek had detracted the article and that it was false. But the number of volunteers who disapproved the treatment dipped to 68%, still higher than the original 56%. Lies when repeated over and over again, have the power to sound true. Cheney attested over and over again, despite all evidence to the contrary, that Saddam Hussein was lined with 9/11. Even today, many people seem to believe it, as evidenced by Sarah Palin’s regurgitation of that lie. So while fact checks are published after the debate is over on the various statements made by the candidates, I wonder if they have the power to really change people’s minds or if they merely provide fodder to each camp to exult in the mistakes of the other.

Yesterday’s debate was another tired rehash of positions. People expressed disappointment that there was no drama, no fire. What little there was, with McCain saying “Oh please” in response to a strawman that he posed to Obama, was sufficient for me to not desire for more. I neither heard anything new or anything fresh. But then, I didn’t expect any. I was just secretly hoping that Obama wouldn’t do so badly as to be considered as having lost the debate.

So, there, I’ve admitted it. Yes, I do prefer Obama over McCain, not because I think their positions are that vastly different on many key issues. Obama wants to fight in Afghanistan instead of Iraq, agrees that defending Israel is important and is willing to talk the war talk as much as McCain is, is almost as hostage to lobbyists as McCain is and is as nationalistic as McCain is. But, there are many other counts on which I feel a McCain presidency would push this country in a wrong direction. There is a difficulty in this country of understanding the difference between science and theology, between ideas and dogma, a confusion between the map and the territory. A presidency driven by an agenda from the Bible is no better than one driven from the Koran, though a Christian country would have difficulty admitting that. A friend wisely remarked that one of the lasting legacies of the Bush government would be a conservative Supreme Court, a prediction that has been borne out, I believe. For the first time, there is a possibility of abortion being considered illegal again. Decisions in favor of the authority are handed out more often than in favor of the dissenters, more in favor of corporations than people. I’ve also been saddened to see the levels to which McCain is willing to stoop to win and at the latent racism, blue collar workers, white women and Hispanics willing to bet on McCain because Obama is black.

So, while I don’t pay much attention to the presidential debates, I still hope that Obama doesn’t stumble, give cause to people looking for an excuse to switch to McCain.